The Averra Dossier: Secretive network of over 35 alt accounts revealed
For over two years, Averra has rigged every election in Alcris, stacked every branch of government and political party, and covertly repressed political opponents with his alt accounts.
Update (October 2024)
I have produced an hour-long documentary which covers and revises the claims made in this article.
Averra, the founder of the NationStates-based microgovernment Alcris, runs a secretive network of over 35 alt accounts within Alcris, the Averra Dossier can now reveal.
For over two years, Averra has maintained absolute control over the region of Alcris by using his alt accounts to rig every election from day one, stack every branch of government and political party with his sockpuppets, and covertly repress political opponents.
The secession of New West Conifer from Alcris, a movement fuelled in part by previously unproven allegations of Averra’s alt accounts, has already led to a declared state of emergency and the appointment of an interim executive Council.
The Averra Dossier extensively analyses various sources, including but not limited to posting behaviour, Discord and NationStates account records, and testimony from sources close to Averra. It reveals that four out of the five members of the emergency government appointed on 6 August 2024, including Council Chairman Wintermoore, Foreign Councilor Caliane, and Security Councilor Myeon, are alt accounts controlled by Averra.
The revelations made by the Averra Dossier are shocking in their magnitude. Since the region’s inception over two years ago, every conceivable level of Alcris has been built on fraud. All of Alcris’ co-founders were fraudulent. Sizeable numbers of election candidates were fraudulent. Elected Councilors, judges, voters, and the press—no aspect of Alcris over the last two years was safe from systemic fraud.
Identifying Averra’s alt accounts
The Averra Dossier has identified at least 35 alt accounts through extensive analysis of multiple independent sources, including but not limited to posting behaviour, Discord and NationStates account records, and testimony from sources close to Averra.
For example, early into the investigation, a source familiar with the alt-account allegations shared a screenshot of Averra’s Steam account stating that he also played under the alias of “Wyntermoore”—an alternative spelling of the Council Chairman Wintermoore.
While the screenshot can be independently verified as legitimate, as the account is part of the “Alcris Gaming” Steam group with other known Alcrisians and ex-Alcrisians, it alone is insufficient in conclusively proving that Wintermoore is an alt account of Averra. There are plausible reasons why Averra may have legitimately used the alias “Wyntermoore”, such as using it as a joke between friends.
Posting behaviour
Accordingly, the investigation analysed Averra’s posting behaviour patterns on the Alcris Discord server as a starting point. It was able to identify five distinct idiosyncrasies characteristic of Averra’s posts.
The identified idiosyncrasies were—
Common usage of the phrase “womp womp”
The spelling of the /j tone indicator (to denote that a message is a joke) as “/ j” with a space
Common usage of the emoticon “xP”
The grammatically incorrect usage of the word “loose” to mean “lose” (e.g. “loosing citizenship” instead of “losing citizenship”)
The common usage of “Pictured:” as a separate post with bold formatting to caption a picture.
The investigation was able to identify five distinct idiosyncratic posting behaviours from Averra.
Some idiosyncrasies are arguably less noteworthy than others. For example, many players use the phrase “womp womp” for various reasons, such as cultural osmosis. Thus, a user that uses the phrase “womp womp” alone is not conclusive evidence that a user is an Averra alt account.
However, other idiosyncrasies are much more noteworthy. In particular, the investigation found many counter-examples demonstrating that many users in Alcris consistently—
Use “XP” (as in experience, Windows XP, or as the emoticon) without using “xP”
Use the word “loose” in a grammatically correct way
Spell the joke tone indicator as “/j” (without the space)
Use different formatting when captioning pictures
Indeed, while the investigation could later identify some false positives when examining the usage of “womp womp” and “loosing” (through the analysis of other sources of evidence as outlined later), it could not find a single example of a non-suspected account using “Pictured:”, “xP”, or “/ j”.
Accordingly, Averra’s idiosyncratic posting behaviours act as his digital fingerprint. While certain idiosyncrasies can provide strong evidence on their own that an account is an Averra alt account, if a user displays multiple idiosyncrasies, the evidence becomes incontrovertible.
For example, while the user Frellor uses the phrase “womp womp”, an analysis of over 12,500 posts on the Discord server reveals that they do not use Averra’s other identified idiosyncracies.
An analysis of Interior Councilor Greater Aidia’s nearly 30,000 posts yields results similar to Frellor’s. While the phrase “womp womp” is used, “loose” is consistently used in a grammatically correct way, “/j” is used as the spelling for the tone indicator, “xP” is not used as an emoticon at all, and Averra’s “Pictured:” formatting is not used.
Analysing Council Chairman Wintermoore’s posts, however, yields a strikingly different result. Despite only having a tenth of Greater Aidia’s publicly available posts at just over 3,000—which is unusually low for both a current and former Council Chairman—Wintermoore’s posting behaviour exhibits all five of Averra’s identified idiosyncrasies.
Foreign Councilor Caliane’s over 2,000 posts on the Discord server (which is also strikingly low for a region founder and active politician) also display all five identified idiosyncrasies.
Security Councilor Myeon displayed four identified idiosyncrasies, with a total post count of only 1,200.
Altogether, as of 4 August 2024, the Averra Dossier’s investigation has found at least—
5 players displaying all 5 idiosyncrasies, namely Averra himself, Wintermoore, Adeile, Caliane, and Gelenia
7 players displaying at least 4 idiosyncrasies, namely Myeon, Miyadaka, Bellogaard, Aviana, Tanguan, Olgengaard, and Nagansett
5 players displaying at least 3 idiosyncrasies, namely Morogaard, Mittellande, Novogaard, Hsui, and Sonoria
12 players displaying at least 2 idiosyncrasies, namely Augustine, Hygessivini, RandoNando, Toussant, South Korasha, Aale, Aretanica, Redwaine, Nordenlaand, Paravantir, Lowlands, and Vaashi
The Averra Dossier’s investigation has also found at least—
15 players using “/ j”, including Averra himself, Aviana, Myeon, Hsui, Bellogaard, Adeile, Wintermoore, Caliane, Gelenia, Nagansett, Redwaine, Nordenlaand, Aale, Miyadaka, and Xinhao
20 players using “xP”, including Averra himself, Aviana, Myeon, Hsui, Bellogaard, Adeile, Wintermoore, Caliane, Gelenia, Nagansett, Redwaine, Nordenlaand, Mittellande, Paravantir, Olgengaard, Novogaard, Hygessivini, Tanguan, Sonoria, and Cyrogaard
32 players using “Pictured:”, including Averra, Aviana, Myeon, Hsui, Beloogaard, Adeile, Wintermoore, Caliane, Gelenia, Nagansett, Mittellande, Paravantir, Olgengaard, Novogaard, Hygessivini, Tanguan, Sonoria, Aale, Miyadaka, Xinhao, Potomac Republic, Augustine, South Korasha, Morogaard, Yinh, Livonia, Victoria, Toussant, Lowlands, RandoNando, Aretanica, and Central Korasha
Additionally, the accounts that displayed at least two of the identified idiosyncrasies had significantly less Discord post activity than accounts that displayed none. For example, while Hearthrune had over 29,000 publicly available posts on the Discord server without a single identifiable idiosyncrasy, Nagansett displayed four (all but “loosing”) with only 152 messages.
This raises two suggestions. First, it is improbable that the highlighted accounts are genuine user accounts owing to an unusually low post history. Second, it is improbable that the highlighted accounts shared Averra’s unique posting behaviours by coincidence.
Discord account records
Another source the investigation turned to was Discord account records, which highlighted certain patterns other than unusually low post counts.
For example, while many of the suspected alt accounts regularly answered poll questions on the Discord server, such as on questions of government reform, the investigation could only identify Averra and Wintermoore as responders to poll questions regarding the scheduling of voice chat calls.
These findings are consistent with at least two different reports from sources close to Averra, who have told the investigation that the suspected alt accounts are rarely—if ever—on the Alcris Discord server voice chat. They are also unsurprising findings, as it is harder to fake alternative personalities on voice chat than using text posts.
An analysis of Discord account creation dates reveals that many suspected alt accounts were created at similar times. In just eight days, between 22 and 30 August 2019, the Discord accounts of Wintermoore, Myeon, Miyadaka, Yinh, Potomac Republic, Bataavia, and Ukiakawa were created.
Adeile, Aviana, and Verda Cruiz were created a month earlier, between 20 and 22 July 2019.
Hygessivini, Caliane, and Gelenia were all created on 25 December 2022 and joined the Alcris server the same day.
The investigation found over twenty suspected accounts, including Bellogaard, Novogaard, Toussant, Vaashi, Nagansett, RandoNando, Nordenlaand, Hsui, Cyrogaard, Tanguan, Aretanica, Aale, Olgengaard, Sonoria, South Korasha, Paravantir, and Central Korasha, also had the same creation and server join date, which suggests that the accounts were created for the purpose of joining the Alcris Discord server.
While there may be plausible legitimate reasons for why a player would have the same account creation and join dates, such as because they did not previously have a Discord account, when pieced together with other evidence, they suggest a motive to populate the Discord server with additional alt accounts.
As illustrated above, many of these accounts share aesthetic similarities, including—
Over 25 accounts which use the same nicknaming convention, namely “Username (Nation Name)” or “Username [Nation Name]”
5 accounts using the -gaard suffix, including Morogaard, Bellogaard, Novogaard, Cyrogaard, and Olgengaard1
Nicknames that reference each other, such as Mittellande (Midlands) and Madam Bunnycus (Lowlands); Tanguan (North Xinhao) and Xinhao; and South Korasha and Central Korasha2
The investigation also could not find a single Discord account out of the nearly 40 suspected alt accounts with either a profile badge other than the Legacy Username badge or an external Discord account connection.
This includes relatively easily obtainable badges, such as the HypeSquad House badges, which require completing a simple personality test, and the Discord Nitro badges, which require a monetary subscription.
Thus, taken together, many identified Discord accounts—
Were unable to indicate availability to join weekly voice calls on the Alcris Discord server
Have a disproportionately low publicly available post history compared to other non-suspected players
Were created in creation date “clusters”, such as within an eight-day period in August 2019
Joined the Alcris Discord server on the same day the account was created
Share aesthetic similarities, including nicknaming convention, suffixes, and references, despite being purportedly separate users
Lacked development of their account, with a lack of profile badges and external account connections
NationStates account records
The Averra Dossier’s analysis of corresponding NationStates accounts reveals a similar story of unusual inactivity.
For example, NationStates accounts ordinarily cease to exist and require re-founding if they are not logged into within 28 days. Re-founded accounts suggest that they are—or at least were—inactive NationStates accounts.
The investigation found at least 16 suspected accounts that were re-founded and relocated to Alcris within a short two-month period between 4 June 2024 and 4 August 2024.
Eight of those accounts—Hsui, Aale, South Korasha, Morogaard, Bellogaard, Cyrogaard, Olgengaard, and Verda Cruiz—were relocated to the Alcris region within two days between 12 July 2024 and 14 July 2024.
Over 20 suspected accounts did not have any dispatches or World Factbook Entries at all. Many accounts that did have World Factbook Entries often followed the same “Alcris Wiki” format.
In contrast, many NationStates accounts of non-suspected players were much more developed, displaying a variety of dispatch and World Factbook Entry types.
While many of the suspected NationStates accounts' flags were custom-made, Floy, an ex-Alcrisian, has indicated that many of these flags were created by other players. Indeed, Floy stated that they created the flags for certain accounts, including Verda Cruiz, Sonoria, and Nagansett.
However, the most important observation is that out of all the nearly 40 NationStates accounts held by suspected users, only Xinhao possessed World Assembly membership (Averra included).
Under NationStates rules, a player may only possess one nation with World Assembly membership status. This is enforced, as the NationStates FAQ states, by—
Sophisticated pattern-matching software [that] constantly scans for suspicious behavior and will expel nations from the World Assembly that it determines are likely to be cheats (known as "WA multies"). Repeat or large-scale offenders are deleted.
By having only one NationStates account with World Assembly membership, a player can avoid the trouble of attempting to overcome NationStates’ pattern-matching software in detecting alt accounts. Discord, by contrast, does not prevent alt accounts, making the creation and maintenance of many a far more trivial activity.
Alcris, a two-year crime scene
The Averra Dossier’s evidence is damning and conclusive. It identifies a network of over 35 alt accounts, run over the span of two years by Averra, that have pretended to be distinct individuals that they are not.
These include Aale, Adeile (Adaleide), Aretanica, Augustine, Aviana, Bataavia, Bellogaard (Toad), Caliane (Val), Central Korasha, Cyrogaard, Gelenia, Hsui, Hygessivini, Livonia (Finnie/Fennlaand), Lowlands (Madam Bunnycus), Mittellande (Midlands), Miyadaka, Morogaard (Pengi/Morodavia), Myeon, Nagansett, Nordenlaand (NosiePosie), Novogaard, Olgengaard (Flopsy), Paravantir, Potomic Republic (Columbia), RandoNando, Redwaine, Sonoria, South Korasha, Tanguan (North Xinhao), Toussant, Ukiakawa, Vaashi, Verda Cruiz (Alpaca Micca), Victoria (Grogu), Wintermoore, Xinhao, and Yinh.3
It is highly likely that there are further accounts owned by Averra that the investigation did not conclusively identify. Indeed, the investigation has found at least one additional suspected account for which there is insufficient evidence.
The trove of evidence uncovered by the investigation does not include evidence systematically deleted by Averra following the secession of New West Conifer and the surfacing of allegations revolving around his alt accounts.
In scenes reminiscent of Stasi agents shredding millions of documents to hide evidence of their criminal activities, Averra deleted channels containing years of transcripts, documents, and voting records of previous executive Councils. As newly appointed Legal Councilor Beam revealed to the investigation, Averra initially intended to delete the Alcris server entirely.
Plausible, legitimate explanations may explain each source of evidence individually and in isolation, be it the lack of World Assembly membership, the same Discord creation and server join dates, or the use of the phrase “womp womp” on the server.
However, no reasonable conclusion can be made that over 35 separate and distinct players, among other things—
Exactly displays Averra’s idiosyncratic posting behaviours, including the usage of uncommon slang, emoticons, spelling of tone indicators, grammatical errors, and stylistic choices
Created Discord accounts within the same day or cluster of days
Have practically inactive accounts on Discord and NationStates, with unusually low publicly available post count totals, dispatches, and World Factbook Entries
Share aesthetic similarities on both Discord and NationStates, including nicknaming conventions, the usage of custom flags made by other players, suffixes, and references
Avoid entering into voice calls in favour of making text posts
Voluntarily choose to forego World Assembly membership for which they are purportedly eligible
The evidence uncovered by the Averra Dossier did not end there. As outlined later in the article, the investigation corroborated its findings by analysing leaked election data from the June 2024 snap Council election. Furthermore, the investigation has chosen not to publish certain forms of evidence gathered despite its public availability, as they contain identifiable private information.
Averra’s total infiltration of Alcris
The Averra Dossier can reveal that Averra’s secretive network of alt accounts has been used to infiltrate every conceivable level of Alcris’ government and community since the region’s founding, giving him total control.
Through systemic election fraud—including the fielding of fraudulent candidates, stuffing of fraudulent ballots, and the creation of fraudulent political parties—Averra has held an iron grip on Alcris’ executive branch.
Between August 2022 and August 2024, Averra has always won at least two seats in Alcris’ executive Council—winning an extraordinary five out of seven Council seats in the October and December 2022 elections. At the heights of his power, Averra controlled 80 percent of Council seats.
By controlling at least two seats in the region’s executive Council at all times, Averra possessed the power to veto any legislation he wished (as the mere abstention of two Councilors denied a bill quorum) and the power to unilaterally block the impeachment of any executive Councilor, including himself.
Averra stacked the Council with his alt accounts by standing alt accounts in every election since the region’s founding. In October 2022, he stood 78 percent among election candidates, with seven separate accounts in total.
Analysis of leaked election data of the June 2024 snap election, independently verified by the investigation for its veracity, reveals a stunningly egregious case of election fraud.
Over two-thirds of ballots cast in that election were fraudulent. Ballot stuffing by Averra’s network of alt accounts increased Averra’s vote share by over 400 percent and Wintermoore’s by nearly 430 percent.
All three candidates who purportedly lost the election according to officially released results—Ventus Prime, Frellor, and Fezzian League—had actually won. Discounting the fraudulent ballots, Ventus Prime won more votes than Averra, who came fourth in the election (as opposed to first, according to official results).
Alcris’ façade of democracy was maintained not only by a rotating cast of fraudulent candidates but also by a selection of supposedly independent political parties, all of which he ran.
Policy differences between the main political parties—the Movement for Progress (formerly the Progressives), the Protectorate Party, and the Moderates—such as views on foreign policy, immigration, and culture, were, in part, products of Averra’s manufactured concoctions. This gave him unprecedented power to set the agendas of public debate.
Political parties not under Averra’s control were covertly and systematically undermined. As a result of Averra’s extensive fraud in the June 2024 snap election, the only political party not to be controlled by Averra’s alt accounts—the opposition Science Team—was reduced from two seats to zero.
Averra’s totality of control also extends to the judiciary and wider justice system, giving him the power to play as judge, jury, and executioner.
Until the appointment of Gelezia J in April 2024, Averra had secretly authored every judicial opinion—over 20 in total—through his alt-account personas of Livonia, Paravantir, Yinh, Midlands, Lowlands, and Sonoria JJ. This includes at least four separate cases that he has initiated, including two criminal prosecutions, under various aliases such as Adeile, Gelenia, and Uikakawa.
Among others, Averra’s judicial opinions have held that—
An allied microgovernment, Arcesia, had broken their treaty obligations (in a case brought by Averra’s alt Uikakawa)
The government was not required to provide ballots in the English language, which was previously not an official language of Alcris
The government could reverse constitutionally binding promises it has made in merger treaties, which was held to be a political question
The Security Councilor could unilaterally close the borders of the region for up to ten days without the approval of the Council
The Security Councilor could unilaterally create “emergency orders” interpreting constitutional law if there was no relevant case law
The government could constitutionally censor certain forms of political content from the Discord server
The government could constitutionally regulate and ban political parties
Averra also controlled all three “co-founder” accounts, namely Wintermoore, Caliane, and Averra himself. Combined with his total control of the executive and judiciary, he had constitutionally unchecked power to declare a state of emergency at any time.
As was seen in early August 2024, following the New West Conifer secession, under a state of emergency, Averra can suspend constitutional rights and unilaterally pass executive orders without the approval of the executive Council.
Averra’s control extended outside of government as well. For example, he secretly controlled the press by running the supposedly independent polling company Wahlinfo. Publishing opinion polls, press stories, and analyses under his alias Bellogaard, Averra maintained the illusion of healthy political competition among the political parties he controlled, such as the Protectorate Party (“Protectorates”), Movement for Progress (“MfP”), and the Moderates.
Far from being the impartial broadcaster, Averra weaponised Wahlinfo as a propaganda outlet to manufacture consent for the three above-mentioned parties. He gave purported projections of election victories for those parties and regularly described his alt accounts, including Caliane, Potomic Republic (Columbia), and Wintermoore, as “popular”.
In contrast, Wahlinfo aggressively pumped out negative press coverage of the Science Team, the only party he did not control prior to its dissolution by Averra under the August 2024 state of emergency.
The Averra-run news outlet repeatedly portrayed the Science Team as an out-of-touch “struggling” party with no prospects of electoral success. Citing his own alt account, Redwaine, to provide political commentary on the Science Team, he accused the party of being a disorganised group that failed to “appeal to a broad number of people” outside of the former members of the New West Indies. Vague allusions were made to purported complaints by “people” failing to understand what the party stood for.
False projections were published, reportedly showing the Science Team winning zero seats and portraying the elections as a three-horse race between the three parties he did control.
But the truth was markedly different. Far from being a fringe party, had the June 2024 snap elections been held legitimately, the Science Team would have been the largest party in the region’s executive Council by 6 July 2024.
Averra’s control of so many alt accounts meant that he could also manufacture consent simply by distorting the reality of public opinion. He did this by brigading opinion polls and reactions on the Discord server.
For example, he manufactured positive reactions to the controversial judicial decision to dismiss the cultural rights case summarily and inflated public opinion on the guilds system.
Rumours, until now
The external image that Alcris sought to portray on the interregional stage—that it was a pluralistic, consensus-based, liberal democracy—was a sham from the very beginning.
Averra’s total infiltration of Alcris with his secretive network of alt accounts has given him total and absolute power over the region. He controls its co-founders, executive Council, courts, moderators, and media.
Together, he weaponised this network to gain unprecedented political power. Players who innocently participated in the institutions, groups, and political parties he controlled were rewarded—with rewards of political power that were mere façades that lent greater legitimacy to his regime.
Political opponents who dared oppose him were covertly and systematically repressed—he prosecuted and dissolved them in captured courts, he spread disinformation through supposedly independent channels, and he shut them from political power through absurd levels of election fraud.
Using alt accounts to do this makes Averra’s two-year campaign of deception even more insidious, as it gave plausible deniability to everything he did. He took comfort in knowing that the rumours and allegations of his alt-account network were just that—mere rumours and allegations.
Until today.
One source has told the investigation that referential usernames (which include names with the -gaard suffix) can be explained by the fact that many accounts were involved in the region’s roleplay. However, they noted that it was odd that the accounts did not change their names to be something more personalised.
See above.
Correction (13.08.2024) – An account which was suspected but not conclusively confirmed was erroneously added to this list and has since been removed.
Did you collect the ID numbers of any of the discord accounts used?